In a bold sign of thawing relations between the countries, Presidents Barack Obama and Hugo Chavez announced today that the state of Texas would be traded to Venezuela for Jesus Moronta, a slick-fielding, hard-hitting 14-yr-old shortstop phenomenon, cash considerations and an undisclosed amount of raw, premium coca.
Times are hard, money is short, things seem to be spinning out of control. The new President is trying to fix things but these solutions may be too little too late. There is something the President has brought to the table that has been lacking….a sense of cool.
Look back to the old Hollywood movies and you’ll see it. The person who has things, but isn’t controlled by them. The hero who doesn’t need to brag or show off, cause the losers who oppose him aren’t in his league. Plays by the rules when he should, breaks them when they are silly, but does it for a reason always. Smart, quick with a joke….but when he’s pissed, its a bad situation. Not the out of control rage of the villain, not the ranting and false bravado of the rascal, but a tightening of the eyes, the sudden leadness of voice…and the impression of deadly concentration and seriousness.
President Obama knows the power of cool. After a decade of blaring false bravado and irony, the States may be ready to reimbrace its old self-image. Things may be going to hell, but the hero of the story (who is always us in our minds)? The hero’s got it together, man.
In an effort to conserve scarce resources in trying economic times, President Obama has issued an executive order to alter the centuries-old tradition of addressing a joint session of Congress. Both branches of Congress will, instead, be issued only one-hit bongs, marking the first time the joint session has been changed since Theodore Roosevelt’s hookah act of 1905.
Over 200 years ago, in 1802, Thomas Jefferson made a prophetically inferential statement apropos the US banking system. As we see our banks faltering, our credit lines freezing, our housing markets crumbling, and enough corporate greed to pass out $18 billion worth of bonuses with government allocated funds, we should review Jefferson’s ethics on our current weakening banking system.
Jefferson, a great skeptic of private banking, said the following in a letter to then Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin:
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
Jefferson couldn’t have hit the nail harder on the head concerning the future of banking. By having our banks control everything, including: credit, loans and the housing market, we are putting the American people at a disadvantage. People are genuinely worried about being deprived of property and this worry stems from the bigger worry of a failing economy and a system that has taken advantage of the American people for too long. Where is the, “freedom,” “liberty” and “equality” that our founding fathers once proclaimed?
A capitalist society should thrive on the premise that everyone can grant themselves wealth if worked for hard enough. This is a reasonable conjecture, but since when did this premise become: you may work hard, but nothing is guaranteed because corrupt, greed-ridden dingbats will be controlling all of your major investments?
What we should do now as a nation is ask ourselves: How much longer do we stand by our banking system? How many more times do we bail them out? When will we stand with Mr. Jefferson and restore power back to the people, to whom it properly belongs?
When everyday Americans are being taxed to hell in order to support Wall Street, it isn’t freedom, liberty or equality. In fact, it is not even theoretically capitalism (or democracy for that matter). There are certain names we call most countries who have rations or incitements (or stimulus, if you will) and pay high taxes or fees to support the government and systems controlled by the government (our banking system, for example), and it usually isn’t “Capitalistic” or “Democratic.”
Unless you want to define democracy as the great Mr. Jefferson did himself: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine,” we should have this be the final chance for the banking industry.
Thomas Jefferson must be cringing in his grave right now, and asking the question every American patriot should be asking themselves right now: when is enough enough?
For George W. Bush’s $700 billion economic bailout plan, the republicans had no problem bailing out Wall Street, with the house voting 263 to 171 in favor of the bill (with 91 of 199 republicans voting for it). So the question now: Why are House republicans putting up such a fight when it comes to bailing out things more relative to Main Street (education, tax cuts and potential job growth)? Are they playing partisan games, or do they really find Mr. Obama’s plan wasteful (as if Bush’s plan hasn’t been)?
Bush’s tone regarding his administration’s Wall Street bailout was urgent. Bush threatened congress by saying that if they did not act now, America would be in a national crisis and possibly provoke a global crisis. Mr. Bush said, “By coming together on this legislation, we have acted boldly to prevent the crisis on Wall Street from becoming a crisis in communities across our country.” Mr. Bush, I think a lot of the United States disagreed with your bailout, but I question why your Wall Street crisis bailout package found almost half of the House republicans voting in favor of it.
Now, during Mr. Obama’s presidency, his tone concerning his stimulus is urgent as well. Obama has gotten more fired up than we have seen him before, going off the teleprompter, espousing the urgency for this bill. His tone has been thus: “Just this week, we saw more people file for unemployment than at any time in the last 26 years, and experts agree that if nothing is done, the unemployment rate could reach double digits.” This is just as urgent as Mr. Bush’s Wall Street bailout, is it not? According to House voting, absolutely not, with the total number of House republicans voting for the bill equaling nil.
Our country is in one hell of a bind, and again our House republicans are playing partisan games. The senate is expected to pass the bailout on Tuesday, with several provisions and some money cut altogether. But whether it passes or not, the question is: Why was the House so supportive of Mr. Bush’s package? Because of lobbying or partisanship? And why is the house so opposed to Mr. Obama’s package, which presumably would help more of the American people, not just the bonus-boasting buffoons on Wall Street.
These republicans are either credulous jerks or they are playing games. The democrats have been more consistent in their bailout voting. For Bush’s bailout, 172 democrats voted in favor of the bill while 62 opposed it, and for Obama’s stimulus 233 dems voted for it while 11 opposed it. This is far more consistent than the partisan-playing republicans, who supported Bush’s bailout, but denied Obama’s.
One person may have it right, and that’s Congressman Ron Paul. He doesn’t understand his fellow republican’s hypocrisy. Paul says, “It is like they’re born-again budget conservatives,” Paul said. “Where were we in the past eight years, when we could have done something? And you see our last eight years that has set this situation up. So we can’t blame the Democrats for the conditions we have.” The republicans have failed to hold the line of spending during the Bush administration, and now they want to be fiscal conservatives? Balderdash!
If only we could get rid of…
hipsters
single speed bikes
mayonnaise
condoms
the new york yankees
big cars
sean hannity
bigots
liars
knuckle tattoos
and acne
We’re allowed to dream again, aren’t we?
Sorry for the cross post. I play by my own rules.
As a third generation Cuban American, I have mixed emotions on the Cuban Revolution. To see the footage of Fidel Castro parading through the streets of Havana with overwhelming approval on January 1, 1959, is bittersweet. I suspect I, like many Cuban Americans, have a love/hate relationship with Castro and his Revolution.
On one side, I have sympathy for Castro’s revolution. He inspires the underdog mentality; he beckons the idealism and imagination of youth rebellion. Pulling me away from this, however, is Castro’s stiff control of the Cuban people – inhibiting the rights of free speech, free press and other liberties that we in America sometimes take for granted.
It cannot be denied that Castro has forced unhappy people to risk their lives in makeshift boats in order to get to the United States. Cuban families have been torn apart for not agreeing with his intense socialist ideologies. He has repressed many people’s lives by taking away some of their basic civil rights. But Fidel Castro has at least two sides to his very complex persona, and one must take the ugly with the honorable.
On a positive note, Castro reformed Cuba’s education system, with Cuba still having one of the highest literacy rates in the Americas. His Cuba is known for their universal healthcare system – renowned for medical advancements, patient treatment and a lower infant mortality rate than the United States. Furthermore, he has fought for his ideals and he believes strongly in his country’s volunteerism (Cuba has one of the highest percentages of volunteerism – with many Cubans lending a helping hand to people in countries whom are worse off than themselves).
The “real” Fidel Castro will always be an enigma – a man who keeps his private life and thoughts out of the public eye. He will always have a multitude of sides to his very complicated character. He has been admonished by America, but praised by other third world counties. He has been accused of crimes against humanity, but was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2001 for his work supporting the needs of developing nations. Castro has been in many ways, a walking contradiction.
No matter your personal opinion of Fidel Castro, he has remained a significant figure in the world for over 50 years. He has spurred revolutions in Latin America, fought for peace in Angola and has had his life threatened by 638 assassination attempts. His life is enough to interest his enemies and allies alike.
With new leadership in Washington, we may finally see the senseless embargo lifted. As Americans we must continue to ask ourselves: Why do we still have this embargo? If we have it to spite Cuban leadership (which we do), we do not have it for the right reasons.
With Castro still ailing, we may find out relatively soon the answer to his famous utterance: “Condemn me, it does not matter, history will absolve me.”
Just finished the first day of canvassing for Barack and wish I’d started sooner. Worked with a three-person team on several blocks in the area of 30th and Juneau, 30th and Vliet. About 60 percent black, on some blocks literally every house had an Obama sign. Even in the drizzle it was too easy. I wish they’d sent me to Mequon or West Allis.
All in all, a good experience, I’ll be back tomorrow. They called me three times to confirm, compare that ground game to the fact that some staffer in the McCain camp failed to follow up on Joe the Plumber’s appearance with John McCain. No one told McCain and he had his cheese hanging in the wind calling from the podium for Joe T. Plumber.
Unfortunately, they talked me into volunteering on Tuesday as well. I was planning to spend the day on the couch with the computer, the TV and a bottle of whiskey. Maybe they’ll have too many volunteers on Tuesday and turn me away.
A couple of anecdotes: Yesterday before going to a Halloween party, I stopped to buy beer and the hipster in line in front of me said he was canvassing for Obama, he seemed to be from out of town, he said he could’ve earned 120 dollars but let him go for the night because they had too many volunteers. I knew McCain was paying canvassers but I didn’t think Obama had to, but was gladdened nonetheless that they had too many volunteers.
One of the people I was canvassing with today is from the North Shore, and that office sent him to a Southside office (I was based out of 38th st, a machinist union hall) because of too many volunteers..
We finally got canvassed today, about ten minutes after I left to canvass. He told Linda he was from Illinois, he was having trouble making headway in the ‘hood since he didn’t speak Spanish. Linda was surprised and when I got home she asked me, “They have you going to houses that already have Obama signs?”
We haven’t been a battleground state for over a month and how many field offices? How many volunteers? Out of towners from even safer states? The third in our group today was a black woman from Manhattan. It’s not just campaign money but the organization astounds me, even after the usual confusion of a busy, mostly-volunteer staffed campaign office, the confusion was all about overkill, not not having enough.
When I managed Harold Annen’s student politics campaign at UWM in ’88 and we won, I joke that we did it the old-fashioned way, we worked harder and longer than anyone else. It’s true. We ran a clean campaign. Someone offered us photos of our opponent drunk, near naked and passed out under his desk in his student-funded office and we didn’t use them. I was proud of that. Kind of amazing to see that about to work at the highest level, where I’d given up on that ever being the case.
But like I say, even lazy me, selfish with his time, is going ‘til 8 on Tuesday night. It ain’t over (insert sports or opera metaphor here).
Of course the old fashioned way of winning white male only elections were more on par with recruiting bums off skid row and having them vote four or five times at as many polling places and paying them off in whiskey. Plunkett of Tammany Hall advised the use of full-bearded men with longish hair, before voting at the second place you shave off his mustache, for the third the beard, then a short haircut for the fourth.
Supposedly Edgar Allen Poe died in just such a scheme in Baltimore…
But if the right can romanticize Reagan, I can romanticize old-fashioned politics.
Kent
Sarah Palin sure DOES dress nice, but, Jesus, this RNC bill seems a bit much for such a regular person, real American, G droppin’ Hockey Mom, don’t you think? Read the full story.
I guess it was the RNC who wanted to spruce her up? I’m sure she wouldn’t ask for such a pricey wardrobe herself. She’d rather get paid to stay at her own home and bring her kids with her on nice trips because she’s such a devoted mother.
Oh yeah. She would be quite the government reformer.
Yesterday’s report on CNN’s Political Ticker points toward the McCain campaign’s narrowing electoral strategy, with one anonymous source writing off Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado: “‘Gone,’ was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.” Given the state-by-state electoral vote map two weeks before the election, this is a pragmatic approach. But it’s potentially troublesome, too.
Iowa has looked lost to McCain for weeks and New Mexico, with a significant Latino vote polling almost 3 to 1 for Obama, looks tough for him, too. McCain’s internal polling apparently indicates more Obama strength in Colorado than the +4.4% public poll average indicates as of today (Oct 21). Once again, the Latino vote in CO favors Obama by more than 3 to 1.
McCain’s funding may be dwindling, so he has to pick his spots. His cheap use of robocalls (1/4 of $.01 per call) indicates a shortage of money, human volunteers or, most likely: both. Given the state and national polls with just 2 weeks to go, McCain’s electoral vote strategy must be narrowly targeted, leaving little room for error. As the CNN report states: “The McCain strategy depends on holding a handful of Bush ’04 states that are now rated tossups by CNN: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada. It also depends on keeping Virginia…in the GOP column.”
If one believes the Virginia polls that have favored Obama throughout October, settling in to an average of +8% as of today, McCain has quite a bit of ground to make up, especially in Northern Virgina’s “communist country,” where military personnel may be influenced by Colin Powell’s endorsement. But 2 weeks is a long time and I’ve never trusted that this historically Republican, southern state has evolved sufficiently to vote for any Democratic president. I could be wrong. I hope I am.
At an average 11% lead for Obama, Pennsylvania looks like an even tougher job for McCain. That’s as large of a lead as Obama has in Iowa, larger than the current New Mexico spread and TWICE his lead over McCain in Colorado. So, what’s up? Well, with Pennsylvania, McCain can take 21 electoral votes in one fell swoop – matching the total of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado combined. McCain only has a few paths to EV victory, so, gambler that he is, he is apparently doubling down on Pennsylvania.
Then again, betting heavily on Pennsylvania and Virginia rather than other, tighter battleground states may not be as much of a gamble as it seems. Both Pennsylvania and Virginia use Direct-Recording Electronic voting machines WITHOUT Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail Printers. “Over 85 percent of PA voters will vote on paperless touchscreen machines that are hackable, failure-prone, and fundamentally unauditable.” A bill to add a paper trail and audit procedures to Pennsylvania’s electronic voting was “blocked by House Republicans on a near-party-line vote when it reached the floor.” In Virginia, the majority counties use touchscreen direct recording electronic (DRE) voting machines that do not generate voter-verified paper ballots. Instead of creating anything truly useful for officials to recount, the machines simply reproduce data that is already in memory, in effect reprinting the results rather than recounting ballots in any meaningful sense.” Some of these same machines have already been reported to flip votes from Obama to McCain in early West Virginia voting. In WV, the machines produce a voter-verified paper copy of votes. But, like Pennsylvania, the DREs in Virginia have no such paper, rendering any recount impossible.
Watch out for Pennsylvania and Virginia on election day. Both states have easily hackable Direct-recording Electronic voting machines WITHOUT Voter-Verified Paper Records AND neither state requires Mandatory Audits. That is a toxic mix. Check the poll averages in these 2 states the day before the election,. If McCain closes more than a 5 point gap on election day, be very suspicious. And if there’s a large gap between once-reliable exit polls and the actual vote tallies in Virginia and Pennsylvania, be vigilant. If McCain somehow pulls off an historic upset and the results are even slightly dubious, patriotic Americans must be ready to defend our democracy with all we’ve got. Three dubious presidential elections in a row? That’s beyond coincidence, my friends. Don’t let it happen. We may have to tear the White House from Republicans’ cold dead fingers.
Figuratively speaking, of course.
You’ve probably seen, heard or read about the anger at McCain/Palin rallies by now. If not, you should, whatever your political stripe:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuSYHnVpYbs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvCpBvwN0e4
The rage from these crowds shouldn’t come as a surprise. Nor should McCain or even Palin take the blame for agitating these fearful proto-fascists. The number of angry, right white folks has grown steadily since the late 80s. They’ve been bred, fed, nourished and constantly shaken by the ever-present, ever-pissed political “entertainment” spewed forth by the Angry AM Army of Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin, Savage, M. Reagan, etc, ad nauseam…. Limbaugh paved the way, of course, proving that ridicule and slight humor could be mixed with partisan politics for huge ratings and, over the years, AM radio stations have moved significantly to a talk/”news” format. Since 2000, when they couldn’t skewer Clinton any more, when one of their own occupied the White House, and the last vestiges of the Fairness Doctrine were jettisoned, these permanently-pissed ranters have only grown in numbers and rage quotient. It’s difficult to find an AM radio station in rural America that isn’t religious, country or Angry Con Talk.
I’ve listened to these guys (along with Milwaukee’s local versions like Charlie Sykes and Mark Belling, a regular fill-in host for “Rush”) quite a lot over the last 10-12 years. They definitely had an affect on my vote for Bush in 2000 and how I thought the Democrats (NOT Republicans) were trying to “steal” the election by asking for a recount in Florida. From my view today, I’m amazed and wildly disappointed with myself for “thinking” that way. It wasn’t my own thoughts. That’s my excuse. I was stupid, plain and simple. I didn’t take in enough news sources, allowing myself instead to be manipulated by an all too limited number of “news” inputs during that time. I didn’t just agree with Limbaugh, FoxNews, Belling, et al. I believed their words without questioning them and was passionately opposed to a recount, engaging in arguments with co-workers and anyone who took the opposite position in my presence. Until 2000, I had kept a cynical distance from political, staying informed, but watching elections like I watch sports, studying the strategies and handicapping the odds with little or no emotional or partisan investment in the outcome. By 2000, after a few years of AM agitation, I was utterly convinced in the rectitude of George W. Bush and James Baker, whose august bearing added credibility to the fight. I’m over that now, thankfully, mainly because I’ve taken in a broader range of inputs in the last few years, now weighing the Republican complaints of registration fraud against the Democratic fears of voter suppression in 2008.
Given my past experience and the sense that I allowed myself to be manipulated from about 1996 through the Iraq invasion in 2003, I’m especially attuned now to the manipulation and dramtic anger of the AM horde. The crowds at McCain and Palin rallies and gatherings are the result of Limbaugh & Ilk bleatings. Face it, folks, angry white folks make up the majority of the Republican voter base. When it has become “anti-American” to lambaste Bush (a president who is VERY likely to go down in history as one of the worst), to believe “victory” is an irrelevant word in the occupation of Iraq, to disagree with illegal wiretaps in the name of protecting America from terrorists, or to point out the growing gap between the very wealthy and the middle class, we’ve got ourselves a little slice of the Weimar Republic right here in the heartland, especially in the parts of the country of that Palin calls “pro-American.”
Joseph Goebbels must grinning from the 8th circle of Dante’s Hell every time one of them opens their mouth. And Joe McCarthy has got to love this scary bitch.
This anger is not innate nor a result of any real threat to white folks. It’s a direct result of their inputs. People who largely limit their inputs to AM talk and FoxNews — avoiding the “Media Elites,” the “Liberal Media,” Limbaugh’s “Drive-by Media” or simply the “MSM” (that trendy conservo-speak acronym for “Mainstream Media” defined only by whatever the Poly Cons disagree with) and certainly not (Gasp!) reading books — will get worked up rather easily. Hyperbolic opinions expressed at high volume and agitation will do that to a person. (And, yeah, don’t forget the fear-inducing and angry chain emails that apparently make the rounds if you’re on the Right lists or have enough Patriotic friends. I don’t.) No bin Laden, Ahmandinijad, Chavez, Islamic terrorist or “socialist” Democrat could begin to be as detrimental to the civilized workings of American democracy as any ONE of these Angry AM radio wingers. They present themselves as paragons of “Truth” and “Justice” and the “American” way — always in contrast to the Evil “MSM.” Over time, they become a habit, something like a self-righteous friend who makes sense every now and then, even if he is pissed off most of the time.
As election day draws closer, the AM anger is boiling over like never before. Tune in to any of them in the next week or so. Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin, take your pick from the 24/7 Conservative Commercial. To a man (almost all men), they’re all positively unhinged. And they aren’t FOR anything this time around. They are only, exclusively AGAINST Obama the __________ (fill in the blank). The idea that John McCain, a man whom the AM Ranters pilloried as recently as May as insufficiently conservative, would prompt these frothing fuckers to slap every red-meat label on Obama that they can — terrorist, communist, socialist — is almost unbelievable. But they’re mad, really mad. And you must be too, they say, unless you’re stupid, liberal, weak, socialist or just plain Anti-American.
It doesn’t matter whether Obama or McCain wins this most momentous election in at least 40 years. These All-American AM radio ranters will still be there, still angry over something, still spewing from coast to coast, still gathering high ratings from people who can’t break the habit of hearing them, still stirring people up, and, worst of all, still undermining the possibility of intelligent political debate across this fine land. They get paid good money to be mad and Radical Right politicians benefit from their listeners sustaining the rage.
I’m not sure where they want to lead people with their 24/7 exhortations, but it sounds like Fascist Land from my car.
“Evil is the exercise of power, the imposing of one’s will upon others by overt or covert coercion…. The core of evil is ego-centricity, whereby others are sacrificed rather than the ego of the individual.” – Dr. M. Scott Peck, People of the Lie
According to Peck, ego-centric persons are utterly dedicated to preserving their self-serving image. They cultivate an image of being good, right, God-fearing citizens. They specialize in self-deceit and thus are People of the Lie.
If that doesn’t describe George Bush, I don’t know what does. Why do I think that? Read the books and the Jost, et al. sociological study below. They paint a convincing mosaic of Bush’s non-rational, Manichean world view, in addition to the reductionist mindsets and authoritarian personalities that constitute the majority of contemporary Political Conservatives:
A Tragic Legacy: How a Good vs. Evil Mentality Destroyed the Bush Presidency – Glen Greenwald
Conservatives Without Conscience – John Dean
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 – Bob Woodward
Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition – Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, Sulloway
Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency – Barton Gellman
The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Rule – Thomas Frank
Ayers is McCain & Palin’s last arrow. There’s nothing left in their quivers but bullshit — and their reputation for bullshit doesn’t resonate as it did back in the 20th century, when it was freely bought and sold and rarely examined. The further negative tilt is in keeping with McCain’s double-down mind think, and with the Rovians around he’s got the best fixers around but I think they’re being sniffed out.
So their success hinges on a 38 year old story about a tiny group of would-be revolutionaries. Bring it up on anyone between the ages of 55 and 70 and they’ll shrug and say it was the sixties, for anyone under 45 they’ll say, “You mean Obama had something to do with that cool weather site I go to to check the weather for spring break in Cabo?”
Everyone is thinking about the economy and, while live coverage of Palin’s and McCain’s speeches were running, the cables were showing the Dow in the corner, falling in Palin’s case over 200 points in two minutes. Wait, what were you saying, something about airs and the weather? Look the fucking Dow is dropping like a rock…
They’re flat-out saying they have to turn the discussion from the economy, good luck with that. These are serious times. On a personal level, my wife lost her job last week and I’ve been calculating that opening another gallery recedes by almost a year for every day the market is in turmoil. We’re far from alone in our concerns. Serious times. Obama is the serious candidate.
As polls across the country increasingly show Obama leading McCain and solidifying the electoral map, I am skeptical, highly skeptical, maybe paranoid. As such, I have some observations which may hearten the few Cons who might read this and either discourage my fellow Obama backers or encourage them to GET TO WORK.
First off, one should not ignore the polls that include Ralph Nader and Bob Barr: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html.
When Nader and Barr are added to the polls as named choices, Obama’s support falls by almost 2% while McCain’s support remains unchanged: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html Nader, as you know, was a big factor in 2000. Many democrats still blame him for handing the 2000 election to Bush. (He DID get 97,488 votes in Florida, 22,198 in New Hampshire – much more than Bush’s margin of victory in both states.) In a close election — especially in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin– the Nader factor should not be discounted.
Second, the number of undecided and barely leaning voters is historically high — as high as 18%! The more undecideds, the better the odds are for McCain. In a recent discussion of the election between Republican and Democratic pollsters on NPR, the Republican pollster said “Obama’s poll numbers are more likely to be a what-you-see-is-what-you-get number than McCain’s.” He confidently stated that a greater number of uncommitted voters would swing to McCain on or before election day, adding that the longer a person takes to decide, the more likely s/he is to select the more known political entity. The democratic pollster did not dispute this statement. Other seeds of doubt may be found at http://www.thenextright.com/sean-oxendine/on-allocating-undecided-voters. Think about it, as lousy as things are — from the “war” in Iraq to plunging economic prospects to people’s generally dim view of America’s direction — wouldn’t anyone who honestly wants to shake things up be more committed by now? In the past 3 elections, between 21 and 30% of “respondents claimed to make up their minds a day to a month before the election.” McCain and Palin’s nastiest character and “patriotism” attacks have barely begun, so 18 to 30% of voters in the “up for grabs” category should be dead worrisome for any Obama supporter.
Third, the quadrennial unknown: 18-29 year-old voters. According to Gallup, Obama has a commanding 2-1 edge over McCain with under-30 voters. Obama optimists say this group is not adequately captured in the national polls because they are off the pollsters’ radars. I don’t buy it myself and have read that pollsters are correcting their numbers accordingly. I believe this group is mostly accounted for in pre-election polls and Pew Research Center,while identifying” the possibility of a small bias in landline surveys,” concludes that the slight bias will only be “consequential… if significant numbers of young people turn out to vote.” So, yet again, a Democratic candidate depends on high turnout in the 18-29 group. (That didn’t work too well for George McGovern, the last time young voters so widely favored of the Democrat, or anyone else who’s depended on the under 30 crowd, has it?) An increase of under-30 voters in the 2004 and 2006 elections indicates they may show up in larger numbers than usual, while others predict a record turnout from this group, but they still can’t touch the over-65 crowd and the geezers are backing one of their own in full force. (I’m happy to report that my own 76-year-old father is voting for Obama and says “I’m not about to vote for somebody that old. My mind’s not what it used to be. His isn’t either.” I’m also proud to say that my 74-year-old, Indiana-raised mother-in-law is an Obama supporter who, after watching the first debate, was appalled by McCain’s barely-contained anger and disdainful behavior toward his opponent, failing to look at Obama at all.)
Fourth, the purging of voter rolls and voter suppression tactics. These are already in the news and may, again, determine the actual number of people who vote AND have their votes counted. Nobody knows whether they have been purged from a state or municipality’s voter rolls until they show up at the poll. At that point, they may be sent to another precinct, asked to vote with a provisional ballot or simply turned away. Every election year, Republicans, good patriots that they are, warn of massive voter fraud before the election. (As opposed to Dems who wait until it’s over.) Efforts to stop “voter fraud” in 2008 include wounded veterans (Those bastards!), Alabama inmates (What! Who lets THEM vote?!), Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin (again), Pennsylvania and, that hotbed of ballot-stuffing: Montana. (Of course, one man’s voter suppression is another man’s voter fraud and the angry AM radio agitators like Sean Hannity and the ever-reliable Fox “News” are ramping up their cries of FRAUD! in Ohio and elsewhere. I’ll tackle that eye-of-the-beholder issue with less bias & more research in a future article.)
Last, but hardly least, there’s the “Bradley effect, a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.” “Experts” differ on the weight of this effect, but it’s reasonable to say that, if it exists, it exists most strongly among rural/small-town white folks, like those in the Northern (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Minnesota & Michigan) and Southern (Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania) Cracker Belts. (The Cracker Belts differ from the Deep South, known simply as Bubba Country in my electoral map parlance. More on my offensive, but accurate, electoral map of America later.) This year, more than ever, watch out for undecided, changeable white folks. “The Midwest is home to more of these up-for-grabs voters. That’s not surprising given that seven large states in the region are among the most hotly contested battlegrounds — Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Among these undecided voters, Democrats are much less intensely behind Obama than Republicans are behind McCain. Obama appears to have more people on the bubble, and many of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s former backers haven’t fully committed, while McCain’s backers are hard-core Republicans and enthused by his running mate selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.” [http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-the-persuadables] And beware of this: Undecided voters are not so undecided after all.
In sum, remember what the Republican pollster said: “What you see is what you get.” To my mind, if Obama doesn’t have a solid 51-52% in a final state poll before election day, he is unlikely to win that state and, by extension, the presidency. (Outside the respective Cracker Belts, Obama may still win the state with 49-50% in the pre-election polls. And does anyone honestly believe that Virginia and North Carolina will swing Obama’s way come election day? If you think the demographics and attitudes of those 2 states changed THAT much since 2004, you’ve sipped too much Hope from the Obama punch bowl.) The only thing that will cancel this out is a historically high turnout. If turnout reaches 60-65% Obama will win no matter what the pre-election day polls show. But that will require the highest turnout since 1968 (60.8%) — a 6-11% increase over the shameful 54% average turnout in American presidential election years since 1960.
I could be wrong. I want to be wrong. I, who loathe hope as an empty-headed quasi-faith, “hope” that I’m wrong. But, trust me, I wasn’t born this way. A pessimist is just an idealist who’s been disappointed one too many times.
So, get out the vote, dammit. If you support Obama, volunteer now and every hour you can spare until election day. And, above all, TAKE ELECTION DAY OFF. Go door-to-door, take people to the polls, serve as a poll watcher or video the vote in an urban or heavily democratic precinct. Whatever you do, don’t EVEN THINK this is in the bag.
If you’re voting for McCain, well, say it ain’t so, Joe. Doggone it, why don’t you jist sit your maverick self down, sit a spell and drill, baby, drill. Just kidding. Vote according to your thoughts and enthusiasm. Buck it up. You’ve always got an October surprise on your side and an historically horrible Bush administration with nothing to lose.
Divergent views encouraged. Just register, please and submit your comments for approval. (I’m not so keen on democracy that anything by anyone gets posted here.)
The 2008 presidential election — especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin & battleground states — will be decided by non-white and under-30 voter turnout. A historically high turnout of non-white and young folks in urban areas and universities will have to overcome the number of white, religious, “working class” voters who have found — in Sarah Palin, one of “their own” — their excuse not to vote for Obama, the smart young black guy. Call it anti-intellectualism (for which America has a long history), call it fear of the unknown, call it concealed racism (the big mystery), but it’s gonna come down to that. Urban non-whites & young people vs. surburban, rural, small-town white folks. Two Americas, indeed.
For all the talk — and NEED — from Obama and McCain of unifying an extremely divisive country, we’re more polarized than ever and McCain’s pick of Palin has made the divisions worse. Governing will be difficult for whoever wins and the winner should OPENLY & humbly speak of these divisions from the moment he wins. Obama is far better equipped to address the divisions with intelligence and grace.
OK, so I no longer think an Israeli or American strike on Iran will be the Republicans’ October Surprise. It’s too extreme, even for the Cheney/Bush NeoCon Xpress, Israel will hold their cards until AFTER the election and it’s not as cynically brilliant as this one…
“War On Terror” Goes To Pakistan
This scenario not only seems likely, but it’s already begun — with little fanfare (for now). First, the Bush administration makes a “standing agreement” with the now-deposed Musharraf to allow military strikes on Pakistan “if the U.S. locates bin Laden in Pakistan’s rugged tribal areas.” Several Predator drones have been fired into Pakistan over the last several months, a development that hasn’t received nearly as much sustained media attention as it deserves. [See the news accounts noted below.] Oddly enough, the Bush administration has been largely silent about these strikes, not crowing about them, probably because they have not successfully killed Osama bin Laden or other high profile Al-Qaeda leaders (with the exception of Abu Khabab al-Masri). I predict an escalation of these attacks leading up to Election Day with much more rhetorical emphasis on the “War on Terror,” increasingly stronger statements from McCain in “following bin Laden to the gates of hell,” strained relations with the duly-elected Pakistani government and a united chorus of drum-beating justifications from Bush/Cheney, McCain/Palin, Fox News and Right Wing Radio Ranters for strikes into Pakistan — a sovereign nation and hesitant ally. They may even claim, just days before the election, to have killed bin Laden himself — too close to the election to be confirmed. This scenario plays all-too-easily into the wishes and dreams of both Bush and McCain. Bush gets a chance to justify his 2 pathetic terms in office and MAYBE not go down as the worst president in American history and McCain is positioned to be play his professional POW card (yet again) as Protector of the Realm. In the end, it won’t matter if bin Laden or anyone remotely important is killed. The ratcheting up of war on terror rhetoric will inflame the USA USA USA chanting white folks. The resultant degraded relations with the duly-elected government of Pakistan will turn them from ally to enemy in the minds of the same ignoramuses. The certain denouncement of these actions from Russia (conveniently reclaiming its Bad Guy role in the Republican US vs. Everybody Else mindset), coming on the heels of their Georgian invasion, will strengthen the “Do It Our Way” American Exceptionalism that rings so loudly of the ears of the Cracker/Bubba & Their Second Fiddles slice of America. (We all know Republicans protect America best, don’t we?) And, most cynically of all, strikes on Pakistan will confirm a position that Barack Obama first set forth over a year ago. Obama will have a hard time speaking against this — though he should — and, if the final strike before election day is rumored — but not confirmed, of course — to have killed bin Laden himself, well…. The flag-waving, absolutist, unthinking white Americans who always opt for the Non-Negotiating Protective Daddy Republican when war is in the air will deliver the White House to McCain, Professional POW, and sassy Second Fiddle, Sarah Palin.
God help us. Oh no, I forgot: God is on our side. God is in charge. We do God’s will. Shudder.
If this happens, remember that Republicans will have proven themselves to be more successful at the cynical manipulative of mass minds — with the tremendous backing of Fox News and the small army on the AM airwaves (Limbaugh, Hannity and their ilk) — than Joseph Goebbels himself. From Lee Atwater through Karl Rove to Steve Schmidt, McCain’s newest strategist, Republicans take and hold power by any means necessary.
I sure hope I’m wrong.
If I’m not, it’s time to call America what it’s become: a fascist plutocracy with democratically elected leaders. And the scales to their victory will have — yet again — been tipped by a fetid mush of ill-informed, selfish, single-issue and/or religious white people.
America will get the president it deserves. Again.
I’ve been predicting this for months, so I might as well publicize it so my deep distrust of the American Administration is documented. An “October Surprise” will undoubtedly occur before the presidential election this year and it will take one of forms:
Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran
In October, sometime between Oct 10th and 30th, either Israel or America will bomb Iran in an attempt to take out their nuclear capability. I think Israel will be the more likely one to take on this mission as they have apparently rehearsed such a mission, but, if the current Israeli political vacuum prevents them from taking such a daring action, the Bush/Cheney crew will go it alone. Such action will, of course, arouse fear and thoughtless “patriotism” in a large chunk of ultra-white Americans (the “USA, USA, USA” chanting tribe), rallying them to “Support Our Troops,” reawakening their “U.S. vs. Everybody Else” exceptionalism and leading more of them to vote for McCain — the Old Tough Guy whose 30-year history of foreign policy votes, views, mentors, experience and current advisors are more hawkish than Bush and his bevy of neo-conservative unilateralists.
That was my sole prediction until the last few days when Pakistan entered the picture…
Please, PLEASE…. Oh Lord, please…
Vote for where we ought to go.
Not for where we’ve already been.
Please.
Think about it.
Then decide.
Obama / Biden. What we could be.
McCain/Palin. What we have been.
Read this and weep if you are a rational being:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-Among-White-Voters.aspx
I’ve never been more proud to be an atheist.
And never more ashamed of being white.
America will move forward or even further backward after this election. Simple as that.
America will get the president it deserves. Again.
I keep thinking we deserve better.
June 26, 2008
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a sweeping ban on handguns in the nation’s capital violated the Second Amendment right to bear arms. Writing for the 5-4 majority, Justice Antonin Scalia noted that the handgun is Americans’ preferred weapon of self-defense in part because “it can be pointed at a burglar with one hand while the other hand dials the police.” President Bush said: “I applaud the Supreme Court’s historic decision today confirming what has always been clear in the Constitution: the Second Amendment protects an individual right to keep and bear firearms.” http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080626/ap_on_go_su_co/scotus_guns
June 27, 2008
A heroic effort by hundreds of townspeople, volunteers and National Guardsmen to hold back the Mississippi River failed Friday — undone by a burrowing muskrat. The furry rodent dug a hole through the earthen levee in this eastern Missouri community, allowing water to penetrate the floodwall, which failed shortly before dawn. “It’s so disappointing,” said Linda Wilmesherr as she peered through binoculars at water pouring through a gap that appeared to be 30 feet wide. “With all the guns in this county, couldn’t we kill a muskrat?” http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hw95ek5Sllmi4SoQ_N4HJvwHE0ZAD91ILVLO0
Yup. America. It speaks in such juxtapositions.
